Wednesday, October 7, 2020

Ken Griffin has dropped over $46 million in opposition to the Fair Tax Amendment -- and I have a question

Rich Miller reported on CapitolFax.com that Ken Griffin recently contributed $26+ million to the Coalition to Stop the Proposed Tax Hike Amendment. The exact amount of Griffin's September 30 contribution was $26,750,000, according to the Illinois State Board of Elections website.

This was in addition, Miller reports, to a $20 million donation that Griffin previously made. So... over $46 million.

That's a lot of money -- and it raises, for me at least, a question.

Before asking my question, I should point out that I am not now and (unless I hit it big in Powerball or Megamillions) not likely to be a millionaire during this lifetime. I am also, as FWIW readers know, no politician. So there's a whole bunch of this high-stakes, big money, power politics stuff I don't understand. Most of it, in fact.

Still, I am a registered voter, and a citizen, and I hope I am as entitled as anyone to ask a question here.

And my question is... why?

Why would a rich person, or in Mr. Griffin's case, a very rich person, be opposed to a graduated Illinois income tax rate?

Don't laugh at me. Stay with me just a minute.

I'm no prophet, but here's what I think the future may hold: The tax rate for rich people will go up, as promised, if the Fair Tax Amendment passes. In which case the Illinois tax return, which is now extremely easy to complete, will become increasingly more complex with each passing year. Many lobbyists will find full employment getting particular exemptions from the new, higher rates that benefit these rich people, and other lobbyists will make small fortunes seeking different exemptions for those rich people. Accountants and tax lawyers will also prosper.

So the tax rates will go up... but will rich Illinoisans really pay more? History and precedent suggest otherwise.

By 1918, just five years after the adoption of the 16th Amendment, Wikipedia says (footnotes omitted), "the top rate of the income tax was increased to 77% (on income over $1,000,000, equivalent of $16,717,815 in 2018 dollars) to finance World War I. The average rate for the rich however, was 15%. The top marginal tax rate was reduced to 58% in 1922, to 25% in 1925 and finally to 24% in 1929. In 1932 the top marginal tax rate was increased to 63% during the Great Depression and steadily increased, reaching 94% in 1944" during World War II. These days, the top rate, again according to Wikipedia, is 37%. Which is a lot less than 94% -- but still a lot higher than the 4.95% flat tax rate in Illinois today.

Who actually pays those high Federal tax rates? Does anyone? Take an extreme example -- Donald Trump is almost always an extreme example -- according to the New York Times, Trump paid only $750 in federal income tax in the year he was elected and no tax at all in 11 of the 18 years of returns the Times reviewed (source). That's with a progressive, graduated federal income tax, too. Somehow, no matter what the rates are, many rich people finds ways to avoid paying their "fair" share. That's part of the secret of their success.

Seems to me, Mr. Griffin would have been better off spending his millions hiring Trump's accountants, or paying his own accountants to study the methods employed by Trump's accountants. But Mr. Griffin didn't ask me.

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