Tuesday, July 20, 2021

Congratulations to Blue Origin and Wally Funk and Jeff Bezos: New Shepard goes up, and comes down again, without a hitch

Logic students have a name for what is depicted in this cartoon, false dilemma or false dichotomy or something like that. Who cares? It's amusing. It's funny. It's just not true.

If only it were true. If only we could push a button -- or if Bezos or Musk or Buffett or Gates could just write a check -- and end child hunger.

Gazillionaire Jeff Bezos launched himself into space this morning, and returned safely, with his brother, the 18-year old son of a fabulously rich Dutchman, and an 82-year old woman (Wally Funk) who was part of a plan to shame NASA into taking women into space years before Sally Ride rode.

From a technology standpoint, today's Blue Origin launch is kind of primitive: Not only was the flight suborbital, the New Shepard capsule was of the Spam-in-a-can variety that our captured German rocketeers wanted to foist on the original Mercury astronauts (albeit with safeguards that couldn't have been imagined in the 1960s). The four persons launched this morning had no control over any aspect of their flight; they had no controls on their craft at all. The real Alan Shepard and his colleagues used their star power to acquire the power to navigate in their capsules -- which ultimately proved vital to the success of several subsequent manned flights. Go watch The Right Stuff again.

But Jeff Bezos, as you've perhaps read elsewhere, has a sense of history. Naming the suborbital craft New Shepard. Launching on Moon Day -- today is the anniversary of Neil Armstrong's one step for [a] man, one giant leap for mankind. Bringing Wally Funk along -- the historic and cultural significance of including a "Mercury 13" aspirant -- who finally gets her astronaut wings today, as the oldest person ever to go to space.

There will be those that criticize today's venture as a stunt, which it was, but it was an inspirational stunt and a true and courageous bet: Bezos did not send up some recycled NASA astronauts; he was daring enough to go himself. Because today's flight says volumes about how safe and reliable spaceflight can be -- where the billionaire funding the venture feels secure enough to put himself on top of the rocket.

Bezos is and will remain a controversial figure, just as is Elon Musk, his main competitor in the corporate space race.

Most of the rest of us will spend years recovering, if we ever do recover, from the financial disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic. Thanks to his other company, Amazon, Bezos emerged from COVID-19 richer than ever -- even after the world's most costly divorce. And there is the scandal and shame of Amazon employees who have to take government food assistance or insurance subsidies because Amazon doesn't pay enough to live without these benefits. I hope he pays his Blue Origin employees better. I'll bet he does.

Yes, there are grounds on which to roundly criticize Jeff Bezos. In many ways he is a perfect symbol of corporate profits run amuck. He exemplifies the truly appalling wealth gap between himself and his least well paid employees.

And he'll probably wear his astronaut pin everywhere now. Maybe even in the shower. He could well be insufferable.

But stow those criticisms for tomorrow. Today is a day to celebrate the achievements of Bezos and his Blue Origin team. It was a textbook flight. It was, in the understated lexicon of the NASA pioneers, nominal.

I know there are those -- the artist who drew this cartoon, for one, and most of the people who shared it on Facebook, where I saw it -- who will question why anyone goes to space when we have so many problems to solve here. But remember the old days, when you would have to leave your house for work? Were all your problems at home solved first? Maybe you made your bed... but was the living room painted? Was the grass even cut? Why would you leave and do something else when there was still so much to do at home?

Why? Because you had to -- that's why. And we, as a species, have to explore the Universe God gave us. And, today, Jeff Bezos joins Elon Musk as one of those leading the way for all of us. Congratulations, Blue Origin.

Monday, July 12, 2021

COVID trends: Riding for a fall this fall?

It hasn't gone away, you know.

The 'rona is still out there, causing mischief.

Gosh, that makes me sound like a scare-monger, and that's not my intent.

But six rescue workers at the terrible Surfside, Florida condo collapse recently tested positive for COVID-19. They're gone, now, from the site. It was unclear, according to the linked New York Times story, written by Jesus Jiménez, whether any of the six had previously been vaccinated.

That same Times story says that 65% of all Florida residents aged 18 and up have received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, while 56% are fully vaccinated.

Despite it being a much "bluer" state, the Illinois figures seem pretty comparable: More than 72% of all Illinois "adults" have received at least one vaccine dose, while 57% of all Illinois "adults" are fully vaccinated, according to a July 9 announcement from the Illinois Department of Public Health. (Adults is the word IDPH uses, as opposed to persons 18+ or 21+ so I can't say authoritatively, from this, that our comparisons are exact. They must be pretty close, though.)

According to a Times database cited in Jiménez's article, new COVID cases in Florida have risen 55% in the last two weeks.

What would you expect from one of those crazy Red states, right?

Except... in a June 25 report, the IDPH reported 1,744 new COVID-19 cases in Illinois during the preceding week. Two weeks later, in the July 9 weekly update previously linked, IDPH reports 2,945 new or suspected cases... which works out to a nearly 69% increase in a comparable two-week span.

The City of Chicago doesn't report its figures the same way. As of today, however, the City's COVID Dashboard reports a 21% increase in the average number of new COVID cases over last week -- 41 as opposed to 34. So a small number, but increasing nonetheless.

The number of vaccinations is declining in Chicago on a week to week basis -- with 56.5% of all Chicago residents having at least one vaccine dose -- and only 50.5% fully vaccinated. (Why do the City totals continue to lag behind the State? I thought most of the Fox News-viewing Republicans were located outside the City of Chicago.)

On the other hand, Illinois is reporting, as of July 9, "The preliminary seven-day statewide positivity for cases as a percent of total test from July 2-8, 2021 is 1.5%. The preliminary seven-day statewide test positivity from July 2-8, 2021 is 1.7%." That compares favorably with the 5.5% national positive test rate reported by the Mayo Clinic.

That same Mayo Clinic site---as of today---does not show Illinois as a COVID hot spot, not compared with Florida, or Missouri, or Arkansas, or Louisiana. Even Iowa is worse off than we are in Illinois, on a number of COVID cases per 100,000 residents basis, according to the Mayo Clinic site.

But for how long?

We're starting to see---and enjoy---in-person events again. In my corner of the City, some people still wear masks. (I don't... but I almost always have a mask with me, just in case I wind up in a crowd or among strangers from whom I can not keep a distance... and I am fully vaccinated, thank you.) In suburban areas, according to my kids, very few seem to be wearing masks anywhere.

And yet... there are specific indications here, not just in Florida, and not just in IDPH press releases, that COVID cases are continuing to pop up. Last Friday the Chief Judge's Office announced another case, this one afflicting an employee of the Adult Probation Department in the Skokie Courthouse.

I know this is not how it is supposed to be... and I can't prove it, certainly... but my hunch, based on lifelong experience, is that, these days, the vast majority of those people still wearing masks are almost certainly vaccinated. Which would mean that a lot of unvaccinated persons are not.

Which, in turn, would presumably mean that things will get worse again... soon?

Tuesday, June 8, 2021

Ten steps to save Baseball

Ken Levine is mostly a playwright these days, but he has written books, movie screenplays, and for any number of TV shows including some of the best known TV shows of all time, such as M*A*S*H, Cheers, Frazier, and The Simpsons. A former Top 40 DJ, Levine has also worked as a TV director and, more relevant to this post, as an MLB announcer, broadcasting games for the Baltimore Orioles, Seattle Mariners, and San Diego Padres.

White Sox announcer Jason Benetti mentioned Levine and specifically Levine's baseball-themed "Dancin' Homer" episode (written with David Isaacs) during a recent broadcast.

In addition to his many other accomplishments, Levine writes a hugely popular blog. He sometimes jeopardizes his vast national and international readership by indulging in an occassional post about baseball, such as this June 3 post, "How I would fix Major League Baseball."

This post started off as a comment to that one -- a comment that, when concluded, exceeded the limits allowed by Blogger for such things. At some point, Blogger reasons, if you have so much to say, you should get your own blog. Which I already have.

Unfortunately, as a stand-alone article, my prior comment didn't make that much sense. (I would appreciate your not going for the obvious response to that sentence. Instead, read on for 10 steps to save baseball.)

A lot of these 10 steps boil down to this: Make the game shorter. But where's the clickbait in having only one step? And there are, as you will see, more than one way to shorten the game.

Some of these steps are negative -- don't do this or don't do that -- mainly because a lot of well-intentioned people, like the aforementioned Mr. Levine, have made suggestions that would make baseball into some other sport altogether. I only want to "change the game" for the better -- not "change the game" into something baseball fans might no longer recognize. Herewith, then, 10 steps to save Baseball:

  1. Don't ban the shift! The reason teams shift is because they know where the batter will hit the ball. So batters should adapt and not hit the ball as expected. I know the skill has been lost, especially with power hitters, but a bunt down the third base line by a left-handed power hitter would be a double every time. Hit 'em where they ain't. Otherwise, stop moaning about it.

  2. No clocks in baseball! Actually this might be better phrased as "no more clocks in baseball." When the bases are unoccupied, a pitcher has 12 seconds, from the time he receives the ball back from the catcher, to throw his next pitch. See, Rule 5.07(c) of the Official Baseball Rules, 2021 edition. You've never heard of that one, have you? Neither, apparently, have most umpires. But every time the pitcher violates the rule, the ump is supposed to call a ball.

    The first time this is called, the offending pitcher would lose his mind and his manager's head would explode. But if the umps rigorously enforced this rule it would speed up the game right there.

  3. Make the umpires accountable for the pace of the game. They already are, according to the rule book, but you'd never know it to watch. Or, watching, you might think MLB umpires get paid by the hour.

    In his post, Mr. Levine suggests firing Angel Hernandez. A lot of fans have umpires they love to hate. I don't know if the players or owners would like it if I were Commissioner, but I am dead certain sure that the umpires would hate it. Because I would fire umpires who let games drag on too long. You want a playoff assignment or to call a World Series? Get your games finsihed in three hours or less -- or get another job.

    Some of you reading this may think that an unfair and unreasonable demand. But I say it can be done, by the umpires, starting today, and without changing a single rule. How?

  4. Stop the staring contests. I blame this one on TV. When TV coverage became more sophisticated, cameras could zoom in on the faces of the pitcher and the batter, and we could see all the grimacing and glaring and way too much of the scratching and spitting. Then the pitcher would step off the rubber and then the batter would step out of the box and the announcers would fill the dead air with riffs on the 'drama' of the moment. At one point... the 1970s perhaps... this staged drama was interesting. It has long since lost any appeal it might have had. And while this slow-motion dance routine is going on... and on... the ump just stands there like a mannequin.

    The umpire has the power to tell the batter to get in the box and get ready to swing. He can call a strike on a batter for not stepping in. He can call more than one if a player is not appropriately responsive to the demand he get back in and hit. A player can call 'time' all he wants -- but the ump does not need to grant it. See, Rules 5.04(b)(2)-(4). We've already mentioned the 12-second rule. When there are runners on base, a pitcher can also be called for a balk if, in the umpire's view, the pitcher takes to long to pitch. See, Rule 6.02(a)(8). The umpire is anything but a helpless bystander.

  5. Call strikes in the whole strike zone. Take a look at this:
    This illustration of the strike zone is taken straight from the rule book. The written definition is as "that area over home plate the upper limit of which is a horizontal line at the midpoint between the top of the shoulders and the top of the uniform pants, and the lower level is a line at the hollow beneath the kneecap. The Strike Zone shall be determined from the batter’s stance as the batter is prepared to swing at a pitched ball."

    I've had it up to here with a ball at the belt-buckle being described as a "high strike." No wonder we have so many uppercut-swinging behemoths these days -- but when they strike out enough times in a row they'll figure out that they'd better start looking somewhere else than shins to kneecaps.

    Yes, I know that strikeouts slow the pace of play. But walks are worse. Baseball has too long preferred players who can hit the ball far (chicks dig the long ball... remember?) over players who can hit the ball often. With a rulebook strike zone, though, making contact will again be important and pace of play will improve. (And... don't tell the stat heads... but, if in April, when it's barely above freezing, I for one will not complain if the strike zone goes from the nose to the toes. But, then, I also have a suggestion about playing games in April when it's barely above freezing... keep reading on.)

  6. Baseball has to invest in its future. Mr. Levine and I are prototypical baseball fans these days. We are both of, well, a certain age. If baseball is to survive the eventual passing of us Baby Boomers, it is going to have to figure out how to attract younger fans. Faster games will help, I am certain, but there are other things we must do besides.

    Play more day games, for example. Even with faster games, kids may not be able to watch night games. A lot of kids on the East Coast have only heard rumors of Mike Trout. This is a shame.

  7. Kids have to be able to actually watch games. I'm not saying games have to go back on free, broadcast TV. I'm not even sure that, these days, most kids live in households that actually can get the local broadcast stations.

    But teams are looking to set up their own networks. They should be able to, and required to, stream them, free, gratis, and for nothing in their home markets. They won't make money that way with carriage fees to cable, sattelite, or other streaming services, or at least not as much, but they will control the airtime and get all the commercial revenue from their own networks. Maybe the teams could make more in other ways -- probably this is so. But not every household can pay $200 a month for cable/satellite/streaming packages and kids who grow up without baseball in their daily lives will not suddenly mutate into fans as adults.

  8. Kids have to be able to attend games in person. I understand that there's no going back to 50-cent or one dollar bleacher tickets, even adjusted for inflation, such as existed when I was a kid. Players aren't going back to selling life insurance or automobiles during the off-season either.

    But a family needs to be able to go to a game without putting a second mortgage on the house. Mom or Dad should be able to buy a beer in the park for less than the price of a case outside.

    But it's not entirely about the money. That's owner-thinking. Attendance has to be made affordable in order to hook that next generation of fans.

    Even with access on TV, or some sort of screen, kids need to experience the big league game in person. There's no grass greener than at the ballpark. The sky is bluer, the lights are brighter, and the noise is something that you don't just hear with your ears, but feel in your bones. These kids may some day grow up able to afford full price -- but they won't come out unless they fall for the game as kids. They need to have a memorable---and memorably good---experience.

  9. All future MLB stadiums must have retractable roofs. I can understand blowing up the old Metrodome in Minneapolis. I can't understand MLB allowing the Twins to build a replacement stadium that did not have a roof. It's not that Minneapolis doesn't have beautiful weather in the summertime. It just doesn't have 81 good days. A couple of years ago, the White Sox got snowed out of an entire early season series in Minnesota.

    The weather in Chicago can be gorgeous in the Summer. And cold, damp, and misearable early in the season and (sometimes this is relevant, you know) late in the season as well. A retractable roof, open to the elements on nice days, and closed otherwise, would give teams (and fans) a high degree of confidence in getting their 81 games played on time and on schedule, with no rain delays. And teams could hope for as many bodies in the seats in April as in August because conditions at the park would be optimal for baseball at either time. Maybe teams could even set aside a few dates to get their future fans in for reasonable amounts....

  10. No work stoppage in 2022. All the signs and portents are ominous. The current collective bargaining agreement will expire December 1 and players and owners seem headed for yet another strike. Baseball has lost ground to football, it is losing ground to basketball, and if it keeps losing fans and market share owners and players alike are going to wind up derailing the gravy train. Permanently.

    If only MLB had a Commissioner. Someone who could step in and bang heads together and make owners and players see their mutual advantage in going forward together. Alas....

But we still have this year. If only we could get rid of the dumb man-on-second rule for extra innings....

Tuesday, May 18, 2021

Even though the mask mandate has been lifted, sort of, go ahead and wear a mask if you want to

Governor Pritzker's latest Executive Order is not a blanket abandonment of the mask mandate.

Masks must still be worn in schools and day care settings and "on planes, buses, trains, and other forms of public transportation and in transportation hubs such as airports and train and bus stations" as well as "in congregate facilities such as correctional facilities and homeless shelters" and "healthcare settings."

For any non-lawyers in the audience, here is how you say "if you're fully vaccinated you don't always have to wear a mask anymore" in Classic Legalese:

Any individual who is not fully vaccinated and who is over age two and able to medically tolerate a face covering (a mask or cloth face covering) shall be required to cover their nose and mouth with a face covering when in a public place and unable to maintain a six-foot social distance. This requirement applies whether in an indoor space, such as a store, or in a public outdoor space where maintaining a six-foot social distance is not always possible.

But, though you can now go maskless, there will still be restrictions on where you can go maskless.

Stores are not required to stop insisting that customers wear masks. Yesterday's Executive Order expressly provides that "Nothing in this Executive Order prevents [covered businesses] from undertaking stricter or additional public health measures; to the contrary, businesses are encouraged to prioritize the health and safety of their workers and customers, and may continue to require face coverings and social distancing, even for those who are fully vaccinated."

So your local grocery, or local law office, can continue to insist that visitors wear masks.

And there is absolutely nothing in this new Order that prevents or discourages individuals from choosing to wear masks wherever and whenever they want.

My wife started making face masks right at the beginning of April 2020, when the CDC first tentatively suggested that -- maybe -- and they're weren't too sure about it, either -- face masks might provide some protection against the spread of the COVID-19 virus. She made masks for us, for our five kids, their respective spouses, and all of our grandchildren who were two years old or older, and she kept on making them throughout the year, in a variety of colors, patterns, and styles.

Our initial deliveries were front-porch or screendoor dropoffs -- covert operations, necessary to avoid detection. Our granddaughters prefer unicorns, rainbows, and sea horses. We all have Bears masks and most of us (there are a couple of dissenters in the family, but we're working on them) have White Sox masks. My wife just finished making me some gray and black masks -- more formal, I thought, for business use.

Because I do intend to use them, and keep on using them, for some time, even if Costco or the Jewel or the Circuit Court of Cook County says I may do without.

I will do this not because I'm afraid exactly -- even though I freely admit to being a practicing coward -- but because I think it a prudent thing to do. For now. Maybe forever on buses, trains, and planes: Because if the mask helps prevent acquisition of the COVID-19 virus it may also spare me from colds and flus and other maladies which, until now, have been an annual winter burden.

And I am not "doubting the science." First of all, there is no such thing as "the science." Scientific knowledge changes more frequently than the weather in Chicago, and sometimes less predictably. And while there may be a consensus on this principle, or that one, at any given moment, consensus is not the be-all and end-all either. After all, at one time there was an absolute scientific consensus that evolution was impossible or that plate tectonics were a fantasy.

Good science is grounded in observation, and I have observed in my own little corner of the world that I just had the healthiest winter I've had in years. The conclusion drawn from this observation appears to be corroborated by media reports that flu cases were down dramatically this winter, and other reports that makers of cough and cold remedies did not have their usual robust sales this past winter.

Nor do I claim to "know more" than the scientists. In today's hyper-politicized America, the Trumpians are shouting that the liberals must now be claiming to "know more" than the scientists because they do not burn their masks as soon as the CDC says it may be safe to put them down. The current braying represents a sarcastic inversion of the recent charges against the Trumpians that they were claiming to "know more" than the scientists when they refused to wear masks or downplayed the seriousness of the virus or whatever.

I will resist the temptation to observe that the present mask-relaxation trend seems less about science and more about peruading the unvaccinated to go ahead and get their shots -- look, the argument seems to be, if you will just get your shots, you too can go without a mask.... Which would be a heck of a lot better argument if the people who still need to get their shots were people who were compliant with the mask regulations in the first place.

And I am not doubting the efficacy of the vaccines by continuing to use a mask when and where I choose. I don't doubt the science. Which means I don't doubt that, as the best available science indicates, unless and until true herd immunity is reached, the virus will continue to mutate and spread and can "break through" even against the vaccinated.

The COVID-19 virus is weird in so many ways. Many people have gotten it without knowing it. Many have gotten it and suffered minimal ill-effects. Many others -- some 586,000 or so of our fellow Americans -- have gotten it and died. And even if that number is exaggerated, or inflated, or whatever the doubters say, the virus is still real and really dangerous. Even if it's not always dangerous: I know someone in the neighborhood who has been in the hospital with COVID-19 since the end of March. She's been on a ventilator and in a medically-induced coma for much of the time. She's showing improvement lately, and we can only hope for her and her family -- none of whom became seriously ill -- that this encouraging trend will continue.

But, in the meantime, I'll continue to keep my masks handy. And I'm OK if you choose to do so, too.

Sunday, May 2, 2021

I read this this morning without wearing a mask

I am getting so brave.

(Doonesbury Comic obtained from GoComics.com.)

Tuesday, April 27, 2021

Looking forward to "getting back to normal" -- but maybe not all at once

I'm see that I'm almost a month late getting to my friend Bonnie McGrath's most recent column on Chicago Now, "Everyone's looking forward to 'getting back to normal' but me," which isn't surprising, I know: A day late and [only] a dollar short would be a victory for me....

I sympathize with much of Bonnie's kind-of-squeamish attitude about the world's halting, uneven return to normalcy.

I've had my shots---no, not at Loretto Hospital, thank you---and my side effects were minimal, even less on the second shot than on the first. (I was feeling pretty smug about that, too, until my kids informed me that really old people are less likely to have troublesome side effects with the vaccine than younger people. Thanks, kids.)

But, like Bonnie, there are some aspects of my former life I am not so anxious to resume.

I'll not be dining out anytime soon. Or going to a movie. Even though I think watching a movie is best done in a theater.

And I'm likewise in no hurry to start taking the train again. I was never a fan of being wedged in a CTA Blue Line car like a sardine. I really didn't like it during the evening rush on hot summer days. I'm tall enough that no one's backpack actually poked me in the eye. But I got punched in the gut with them many times.

I'm told it's much less crowded now.

Still, I'll wait. And when I do go back on the train, I'll be wearing a mask.

I'm in no hurry to ditch wearing a mask in crowds of strangers.

Like a lot of you, I'm sure, my wife and I cut back on our grocery visits during the past year. Lately, though, while we're still going half as often, both our local Jewel and Costco seem twice as crowded. My wife invariably notices people in the stores who aren't properly wearing their masks. He's old enough to know better, she'll hiss, gesturing surreptitiously at someone whose beak has protruded over his mask. I try not to look. I prefer to think we're all still compliant.

Bonnie mentioned that she serves on a number of boards, and she's happy to keep attending them virtually. One of the boards I serve on is having a meeting next month live and in person. And the host suggested we might decide, close to the meeting date, to dispense with the wearing of masks. A couple of board members balked. I suggested that anyone who wants to wear a mask absolutely should, and no one should say them nay. I think that should be the rule for all of us. In any setting. For as long as any of us wants.

But, unlike Bonnie, I'm looking forward to attending meetings in person.

Zoom meetings are better than audio-only telephone conferences, but there is no substitute for seeing a person in person. One can read a room much better, and more accurately, than a screen full of faces.

For the same reason, I'm anxious to get back to court. Zoom hearings are fine for routine matters, and I know some practitioners who are thrilled to be able to log out of a hearing in Bridgeview and into a hearing in Markham without leaving their kitchen, but, in my opinion, anything serious should really be done with all persons present. Even if we all wear masks.

Bonnie mentioned that she's resumed service as an arbitrator. I got called recently to serve as an arbitrator in Rolling Meadows. I was unreasonably happy to be setting foot in a courthouse again. I think the Deputy Sheriffs were a little concerned.

This past Sunday I was able to attend Mass in person (with masks, definitely) and thereafter able to go to the White Sox game (ditto). I liked being among people again -- but I also liked keeping my distance from those not in my "bubble." Some of this may be a natural function of age---even I have to admit that I am no longer likely to be offered the juvenile lead in any plays---but I think it also, at least in part, a function of my own squeamishness about fully jumping into a pre-pandemic "normalcy."

We'll all have to find a new balance point as Covid (hopefully) ends and we get our lives back. Bonnie's approach and mine may differ somewhat, but not in fundamentals.

There was one sentence, though, in her post that alarmed me---and I quote---"I love cable news running all day as my basic connection to life."

Oh, no! You don't have to subscribe to every position espoused by Glenn Greewald, Bari Weiss, or Matt Taibbi to see the dangers inherent in cable news -- any cable news.

We have been isolated in our houses for a year. Our society was becoming increasingly atomized before that; it is far more so now. How we atomized-individuals reconnect and recombine when we return to the real world will determine whether we will continue to have a civil society. And cable news divides us, forces us into 'silos', and fans our worst instincts.

I submit that the real real world is found on our walks around the neighborhood. Bonnie likes trying to guess the color of her neighbors' walls, the make and model of their fixtures, and what kind of food they have on their tables. My wife likes seeing what kind of flowers people have planted. There's a house in my neighborhood that has a giant RV that takes up almost all the fenced-in backyard. I've seen it parked in the street sometimes, but I've never seen how it gets from the street back into the yard. I wish they'd send out notices when they're going to move the darn thing.

The real world is found in those neighbors we see, even though we now avoid them on our walks, often with a good-natured shrug or wave, not the talking heads on TV. Our "basic connection to life"---in my opinion---are the people who are really in our lives, not just on our screens. One terrible thing about Covid is that so many of the truly important people in our lives were too long reduced to mere images on screens. But we're getting them back in our living rooms now, or at least in our yards. Even if we're not entirely ready for everyone else.

Wednesday, April 21, 2021

Bizarre Internet "Rape Day" rumor frightens kids

There was a movie back in 2013, called The Purge, set in a fictional, near-future America where crime has been largely stamped out -- except on a national holiday, also called the Purge, where all crime is legal for 12 hours.

The movie must have done well enough. It has so far spawned three sequels, with a fourth scheduled for release this Summer, according to IMDb.com. A television show, based on the same detestable concept, ran for a couple of seasons on cable.

Clearly, the idea of all crime being made "legal" for a limited period of time is so obviously ridiculous that no one would ever take it seriously, right?

Wrong.

I won't name the teacher or the school, but I heard from a junior high teacher yesterday whose homeroom was greatly agitated about "National Rape Day," supposedly set for this Friday, April 24. On that one day, according to the frightened students, rape would be "legal."

The teacher tried to explain that there is no such "holiday," that rape is never legal, and will not be made legal on Friday.

But the students were unconvinced. There were warnings all over TikTok, they said, so it must be true.

And the students were not entirely wrong -- there were warnings all over TikTok.

Internet watchdog Snopes.com put up a post about this subject on April 19. The post, by Dan Evon, links to a single Tik Tok video from @la.tania.ftn2 that was viewed 1.5 million times between its posting on April 17 and the April 19 publication of the Snopes.com post. An excerpt from that TikTok post, as quoted by Snopes.com:

I just saw a video on tiktok and i had to make a video myself … because I need to make sure that you guys are aware that there’s a video going around Tiktok of disgusting men … and they literally came up with a date to go around and rape women and children.

Except... Snopes.com can't find the video that supposedly prompted this reaction. According to Snopes.com's post, TikTok can't find such a post either. USA Today published a "fact check," by Devon Link, on April 19 (updated on April 20) that likewise came up empty in a search for the video that allegedly precipited the many warning videos:

Millions of social media users have viewed or shared reactions to the perceived threat on TikTok, Instagram, Facebook and Twitter. However, neither USA TODAY nor TikTok could find any evidence of the threat users were responding to.

And, yet, according to the USA Today fact check, there were more than 31.1 million views and more than a thousand videos using the #april24 hashtag. Quoting further from the USA Today post, "According to CrowdTangle, there have more than 1,000 Facebook posts and nearly 50 Instagram posts about 'National Rape Day' in the week before this fact check published."

USA Today tried to reach out to the TikTok 'creators' who spread these warnings. None responded. While some of the creators claim to have seen the video announcing the 'holiday,' none, according to USA Today, shared that link, or stitched it, or dueted it. I don't know what those last two terms mean -- but it does certainly seem reasonable to conclude that the threat was largely, if not entirely, made up.

Snopes.com unearthed archived pages on Urban Dictionary which suggested that someone had proposed a National Rape Day as early as 2018. But it didn't go viral until the condemnations of an apparently non-existent video began circulating.

So there is no "National Rape Day" Friday or any other day, ever. But April is Sexual Assault Awareness Month. Wikipedia says the month has been observed since at least 2001. President Obama proclaimed April as National Sexual Awareness Month in April 2010.

The Internet has many uses, and the ability to rapidly---almost instantly---share information can be one of the most beneficial.

But only if the information is accurate.

And figuring out what is, or is apparently, accurate information is increasingly difficult for all of us. Especially where information, and misinformation, is surging through channels of which we may not even be aware.

Thursday, March 18, 2021

D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals proscribes use of Garamond

Look, I get it: If you had to read briefs for a living, you'd want the parties to use typefaces that were as easy on the eyes as possible. Lord knows, lawyers' prose can be sludgy and kludgy and frequently is; if it at least looks good, however, it might be easier to wade through.

So, non-lawyers, restrain your snickers about persnickety judges in snobby D.C.

Besides, the D.C. Circuit judges are not alone on this. Take a look at pp. 170-177 of the 7th Circuit Practitioner's Handbook for Appeals (excerpt from Ch. XXIII: "You can improve your chances by making your briefs typographically superior"). The Illinois Courts area a bit more laid back---probably the difference between having life tenure and having to face retention elections, even if only once a decade---but Supreme Court Rule 341(a) still specifies that briefs must be double-spaced, in 12 pt. type or larger. Condensed type is verboten, and particular margins are specified.

But the D.C. Court's March 16 announcement is remarkable because the Court has singled out Garamond as a font to be avoided:

Certain typefaces can be easier to read, such as Century and Times New Roman. The Court encourages the use of these typefaces. Briefs that use Garamond as the typeface can be more difficult to read and the use of this typeface is discouraged.

Somebody over there really doesn't like Garamond....

Wednesday, March 17, 2021

Perils in the wearing of the green for St. Patrick's Day (or red for St. Joseph)

I wear green for St. Patrick's Day, of course. Even if it does bring out the sickly green pallor of my skin.... On Friday I'll wear red for St. Joseph, too. Even if it does bring out the red of my bloodshot eyes. Christmas, when the wearing of red AND green is encouraged, is a nightmare for me and everyone around me....

Friday, March 12, 2021

Order today to ensure delivery by the Ides of March

Select "Rush Delivery" at checkout.

Returning to the office soon? Makes a great passive-aggressive, and mildly threatening, welcome back gift for your supervisor's desk.

Friday, February 12, 2021

When you think about it... this is exactly what a cat pretending to be a lawyer would say....

I saw this on Facebook this morning and felt compelled to share.

Wednesday, February 10, 2021

"I am not a cat." Just another practice pitfall we did not anticipate when this two-week shutdown started, 11 months ago

The video itself is presented below, but I can't imagine it will be available indefinitely. For that reason, I've included a still (both the video and the still were obtained from this post on Lowering the Bar, a site I link to on Page One).

When I saw this on the news last night my first thought was there but for the grace of God go I.

One of my sons texted me a different link to this story first thing this morning -- and it occured to me then that I am indeed fortunate not to have all the latest gizmos and whizbangs installed on my creaky old laptop. I could just imagine that this poor lawyer's kids or grandkids got hold of his machine and, in all innocence, left it on a setting the poor lawyer could not un-set. He refers to his "assistant" trying to help him de-cat his image, and I wondered if said assistant might be the kid who got him in this predicament in the first place. And then maybe couldn't remember---in the pressure of the moment---how to fix the problem.

I know your malpractice carrier and the good folks at ARDC will tell you that lawyers need to keep their work machines away from family members -- and this video presents a perfect illustration of why this advice is given -- but the kids or grandkids are not swiping the lawyer's machine to ascertain client confidences or business secrets. They probably would take it only as a last resort: Adobe Reader is no substitute for Fortnite. They would only swipe a lawyer's computer because all the other machines had been taken.

The Texas judge in question released this video for "educational purposes," adding, "It is crucial that this not be used to mock the lawyers."

You'll have no trouble with me, Your Honor. Not on this one. But my kids may be a different story....

Wednesday, January 20, 2021

There's a whole lot of truth in this comic

Candorville comic by Darrin Bell obtained from GoComics.com.

Thursday, January 14, 2021

Inspiration from Beethoven?

No subtext. No hidden meaning. Just a picture that made me laugh this morning. Maybe it will make you laugh, too. Even if you think it dumb-dumb-dumb-Dumb, dumb-dumb-dumb-Dumb.

Monday, January 11, 2021

Next Sunday evening: Tom Brady v. Drew Brees

Updated January 12, 2021

OK, to no one's real surprise, the Bears are out of it. But that sets up this Game for the Ages. Or is that the Game for the Aged? Whatever, somewhere George Blanda is smiling.

Update: Messrs. Brady and Brees have apparently embraced the gag:

(Here is the link to the original Tweet.)

Thursday, January 7, 2021

Spell-check is one of the greatest inventions of the 20th Century...

...this amusing bit of doggerel nothwithstanding.

However, on a more serious note, this poem illustrates the danger inherent in uncritical reliance on, or unthinking acceptance of, just about anything. Even something as useful as a spell-checker, or the media.

Wednesday, December 16, 2020

There is no "war" between science and religion

Jerry Coyne, Professor Emeritus of Ecology and Evolution at the University of Chicago, argues just the opposite in this post that appeared recently on Yahoo! News (via a site called The Conversation).

Professor Coyne scoffs at the notion that faith can be compatible with science. He aruges that "science and religion are not only in conflict -- even at 'war' -- but also represent incompatible ways of viewing the world." He insists that religion is not the "sole bailiwick of 'purposes, meanings, and values.'" Reason, rather than faith, can serve "as a fount of morality," he asserts, adding, "All serious ethical philosophy is secular ethical philosophy." Coyne concludes that faith is "not a virtue but a defect."

The good professor misunderstands both science and religion. Like many atheists (and, indeed, many religious fundamentalists) Coyne does not give God nearly enough credit.

My high school calculus teacher long ago went to his eternal reward (I met his widow nearly 20 years ago, when I was planning my own father's funeral Mass). Mr. Meinhard strongly disapproved of hand-waved proofs. Unfortunately, so many years removed from the formal study of mathematics, I will have to "hand wave" this explanation quite a bit. But, with apologies to Mr. Meinhard, let's imagine a graph, where the x-axis is time and the y-axis is infinite knowledge.

That red line represents an idealized view of human knowledge -- steadily improving, even accelerating, over time. But the line is meant to display asymptotic behavior -- no matter how much humanity learns, we will never know everything. Surely even Professor Coyne would accept that no ultimate computer will ever flash the Answer to the Ultimate Question (42, in case you've never read Douglas Adams) and put all scientists out of work forever. Our red line will never cross the y-axis.

Of course, the progress of science, like every other human endeavor, is not so smooth as this ascending red line. The example that was popular in my youth was Roman concrete -- the ability to make long-lasting concrete structures, like the Roman Colosseum, was lost to science for over a thousand years. And, if you've ever driven in Chicago, you know the knack of making long-lasting concrete is still lost, at least for road contractors. My current favorite example comes from the Bronze Age. The Minoans had flush toilet and water treatment technologies over 3,000 years ago which were not really equalled until the late 19th Century (the Romans came close, according to the views of some scholars, but I would argue the Minoans' private facilities were vastly superior to the communal facilities used by the Romans).

Anyway, though various technologies have been lost to human folly over the centuries, requiring their eventual rediscovery by hopefully more enlightened persons, let's use the red line as a rough guide of the growth of human knowledge.

Here's where my high school calculus comes in: For any point along the x-axis that one cares to plot, the area below the red line between the designated point and the y-axis will be infinite. That is more than enough space for God, no matter how much humankind learns.

There is, admittedly, tension between science and religion. Science is the study of the known and the knowable. Religion is the study of the unknown and unknowable. Every year -- every day -- as human knowledge increases, the areas that are the exclusive province of religion shrink. Our anscestors did not understand the changing of the seasons, the movement of game, the growth cycle of plants. Each was, in every human culture I've ever heard of, at one time the exclusive subject of religion: Deities of one sort or another were posited to account for these things. Some were more benign than others.

And, of course, Religion does not always graciously acquiesce in the surrender of its territory: Professor Coyne's own discipline of evolution is certainly an example of that. Even now, there are otherwise normal people who think that dinosaur bones were put in the ground by the Devil to tempt our faith. The fundamentalists don't give God credit for a world that is wondrous beyond their limited imaginations. But, then, Science does not always accept new discoveries in its realm with open arms either: Not all scientists were immediately enamored of the idea of evolution, for example. Or plate tectonics. Or almost anything else. Indeed, science, properly understood, is not a very secure place. After sometimes lengthy struggles for acceptance, facts and theories can be toppled at any moment by some new revelation. Aristotle was the height of scientific knowledge at one time -- though couched in biblical and theological language, when it condemned Galileo, the Catholic Church was as much defending Aristotle as the Bible.

Religion, on the other hand, is the realm of absolutes. There is absolute Good. That is God. There is perfect Justice. That, too, is God. There is true Peace and Happiness. God, also. The problem with religion is that we imperfect, unhappy, turbulent people do not know these absolutes. We strive for them, hopefully, but we use our God-given gift of reason here, too (not "faith" as Professor Coyne suggests), just as we use reason in pursuit of scientific knowledge. We have faith in God, but we must use reason in religion to try and figure out what God wants of us in any given situation. We have always failed -- millions who have died in religious conflicts testify to this -- but, even though our best efforts are doomed to failure, just as a scientist must keep trying to understand the universe, even though he or she will never know everything, we are compelled to keep trying. We must have faith that we can improve.

Which brings us to Professor Coyne's "secular" ethics. Reason, not faith, is the "fount" of ethics for the religious person and atheist alike. I accept that a person can be an ethical atheist, but only because that person does not understand that the pursuit of God is at the core of our study of ethics. But, as long as the ethicist is seeking Absolutes, he or she is seeking God, knowingly or not.

Without acknowledgement of an absolute good, reason can be perverted to any purpose. We can provide 'reasoned' explanations for slavery. For genocide. For the murder of those that disagree with us on anything. The court system did not disappear in Nazi Germany or Stalin's Soviet Union. The courts simply became untethered from their ethical moorings. Pursuit of the Leader's approval was substituted for the pursuit of Justice. Germans went to prison or even to the gallows at Nuremberg insisting that they were merely following the law.

Science, like law, is morally neutral. We can determine, through science, what happens when two or more substances are combined -- but it does not matter to science that a hietherto untried reaction produces a life-saving vaccine or a deadly nerve gas. The sum of human knowledge advances either way. We need religion (and, specifically, ethics) to know whether, or how, to use what science discovers for us.

Professor Coyne would presumably recoil at that thought, perhaps imagining a board of ayatollahs limiting scientific inquiry and suppressing scientific discovery. At various places, at various times, this has happened. It could happen here if people like Professor Coyne succeed in eliminating religion from science and vice-versa. But that would be the worst sort of tragedy. Using our God-given reason properly, we can understand that God gave us the universe to discover and learn and, I hope, one day soon, to settle. We do not honor God by spurning His invitation or His gifts to us. Give God some credit. Hopefully, He'll cut us some slack, too.

Monday, November 16, 2020

Nation's Democrats Make Fortune Selling Used 'Not My President' Merch to Republicans

That was the headline on the Babylon Bee article from which the above illustration is also taken. It made me laugh this morning. It also made me think.

Four years ago, ordinarily sane, sober, well-educated FWIW readers were quite literally losing their -- well, they were reacting illogically and emotionally to a national election result they found hard to believe. They were shooting off fiery, defiant Tweets with the #Resist hashtag, or #NotMyPresident. They imagined vast foreign conspiracies undermining our electoral processes. Four years later... with an Electoral College count they find more palatable, these same people heap abuse and scorn on the Trumpers who are having trouble accepting this year's election results. And they do not remember their own bad example from four years ago. Memory is a funny thing, isn't it?

Wednesday, October 28, 2020

But we should still wear our masks, right?

As far as I know, this photo was not taken anywhere in Cook County.

Wednesday, October 21, 2020

There are three types of elected officials in Illinois

And if you reflexively answered, Executive, Legislative, and Judicial, congratulations. You remember more of your junior high civics classes than some of our most prominent public figures.

But, actually, I would suggest a different division. Those are the three branches of government, true. But, in my view, our three types of elected officials are really Policy Making, Ministerial, and Judicial.

On the federal level, we are voting this year for a President, one of our Senators, and our Representive in Congress. These are all, in theory, Policy Making positions.

In Illinois, the Governor and the members of the Illinois House and Senate are the Policy Making officials. Again, in theory, the Governor and the legislature craft the laws under which we live and the budget pursuant to which those laws are implemented. In practice, perhaps, it may seem that legislators exist for the sole purpose of seeking reelection -- automatic in many cases, for incumbents of both parties, since they are unopposed. In some cases, though, incumbents are inconvenienced by challengers on the road to reelection. Sometimes there are open seats. Occasionally legislators die, or retire, or are indicted. Then others must replace them. In these rather rare circumstances, the Democrats and Republicans may both field candidates.

This year, in contested races, though they might be male or female, and though their parents or spouses or children might know them by different names, all Republican candidates are, judging from their opponents' TV commercials and direct mail pieces, named Trump. Similarly, in Illinois, all Democratic candidates, of whatever gender, however they might be known to their friends and in their communities, are, judging from their opponents' TV commercials and mail pieces, named Madigan.

In the 20th House District, where I live, Trump is the Mayor of Rosemont and Madigan is a Chicago firefighter. I thought Trump and Madigan had different jobs, but the mailers I get every day, sometimes three or four a day, suggest otherwise. Millions of dollars are being poured (through a firehose?) into a race for a job that doesn't pay $70,000 a year. So, even if those in most Policy Making offices have little say in actually making policy, control of Policy Making offices is considered very important.

Ministerial offices are offices in the executive branch that aren't Policy Making. In this election all the Ministerial elections are for county offices -- Clerk of the Circuit Court and State's Attorney being the two prominent ones.

Ministerial officials do not make laws; rather, their functions are defined, often minutely, by statute. A State's Attorney has some discretion, under the law, to decide which crimes to prosecute in a specific case, and that has given rise to confusion, and argument, over the extent of that discretion. Discretion exercised too broadly can effectively rewrite, or even repeal, whole sections of the Criminal Code without the actual input of the Policy Making elected officials. This may be acceptable to some Policy Making elected officials, who are thereby spared the embarassment of having to take a position on potentially controversial issues -- and who can thereby have Someone To Blame if voters become upset enough to threaten their own reelections.

The good-government types, the BGA and the like, look at Ministerial Offices as fertile fields for cost-cutting and consolidation. Thus, for example, the recent merger of the offices of Recorder of Deeds and Cook County Clerk was hailed by good-government types as a Good Thing.

But the good-government types make these assessments without proper consideration of the unintended consequences of such mergers: They reduce the already fleeting opportunities for the not-independtly wealthy to begin the ascent of our own cursus honorum. The Pritzkers and Rauners and Trumps of the world can buy their way into public life -- but others less fortunate could use a good track record in these lower-level, Ministerial offices in order to come to the favorable attention of the public and thereby have real hopes to advance up the ladder into prominent Policy Making posts.

That was certainly the goal of outgoing Clerk of the Court Dorothy Brown---to grasp another rung up the ladder of political success---but it was a goal she never achieved. Why? I believe it was because she was always looking for that next job, and therefore never devoted herself sufficiently to the duties of the office she held. With her departure, we may finally behold a future without carbon paper -- if the courts ever fully reopen.

Policy Makers should have big, sweeping plans and ideas even if, in practice, too many aren't told what their big plans and ideas are until the last few days of the legislative session. Ministerial office holders may have big, sweeping plans, too, but they are, or are supposed to be, irrelevant to the discharge of their duties.

Big, sweeping plans and ideas are potentially harmful to Judicial officials: Judges too strongly tied into their well-devloped world views might feel tempted to view, and fit, the facts of the cases before them into their world-views.

Judges should not have empty minds -- they may well cultivate, as other citizens do, an overall world view -- but they must be able to maintain open minds as they hear cases. If Policy Makers have an expansive, macro view of the world, judges need to cultivate a focused, micro view.

I have often argued that it should usually make no difference to the result if the judge is a "progressive" or a "conservative" or even a Trotskyite, as long as are each faithful to their judicial oaths. And this is certainly true for simple questions -- was the car making the left turn at fault? -- and many others, less simple -- was the notice given in the required form? Was the suit filed within the statute? Depending on their philosophical outlook, not every judge will be equally pleased with the result -- that's human nature -- but, when a decision must be made, it should be made consistently.

But there's a reason why the unofficial motto of the legal profession is, "It depends."

Sometimes a judge must figure out which of several potential statutes apply. And there may be compelling reasons supporting the application of each of these. Choosing from among these competing strands of the law would be an illustration of judicial discretion -- significant autonomy, but case specific.

Even when the choices are narrowed, and the apparently proper statute identified, there may not always be only one right answer. This was more obvious when I was a young lawyer: We often used research aids called books, like the old annotated statutes. When reviewing the annotations under any given statute, we might find one list of a dozen or more cases where the statute indicated one result and, immediately following, an equally long list of cases, equally valid, suggesting just the opposite. For all their technological advances Lexis and Westlaw have never quite duplicated the contradictions that can be observed by the Mark One Eyeball looking at facing pages in a book. The equities of the case may suggest that this line of cases should apply, the circumstances of the case may suggest the proper application of that line of cases. A carefully crafted order pulls all the pieces together and resolves the controversy -- and then the Appellate Court comes along and bollixes the whole thing up.

Or any number of other possibilities. If results were always cut-and-dried, we could just get an app for that. Plug, chug, and enter the data for the next.

Sometimes the best result may be not to decide, but to guide the parties to a settlement that all can live with. Zero-based discovery might be one tool for judges to preside and guide a civil case to a reasonabe solution.

For the Judicial official (unless that Judicial official is on the Illinois Supreme Court, in which case he or she may have some Policy Making responsibilities, especially if he or she serves long enough to be Chief Justice), it is only the parties before the bench that should matter in any given case. It is the narrowest view. The Ministerial official should not be particularly concerned with individuals, but with processes and implementation of the controlling stutory plan. The Ministerial view should be practical and prosaic. Poetry and vision are reserved for the Policy Maker, who should take the broadest possible view. Individual cases may illustrate a need or a problem, but the individuals are props in service of a larger vision.

A great Judicial official might also be a great Policy Maker, and vice versa, but that person would have to bring very different approaches to these very different responsibilities.

Thursday, October 15, 2020

Can these numbers possibly be real?

The lead story yesterday on POLITICO's Illinois Playbook was Census Down for the Count, addressing the impact that undercounting may have on particular local communities. This sentence jumped out at me (emphasis mine):

Illinois is ahead of the national average with a 72 percent response rate compared to 69 percent. But Chicago lags at about 55 percent.

I don't know, of course, how one can count the percentage of those counted if one does not know the actual count and, if we already know the actual count, how come we're still counting? But, then, it was my inability to complete the 300-level probability and statistics course that kept me from being a math major in college.

But if the compliance percentages are accurate, how can this possibly be?

The first big push for census compliance was underway when the world ended, back in March. We are now entering the eighth month of our two-week shutdown -- but I distinctly recall, during the actual first two weeks of the two-week shutdown, turning on the TV every day at 2:30 p.m., risking exposure, on some days, to whole minutes of Maury if the start of the IDPH briefing was delayed. With all industry, commerce, and ordinary social interaction at a standstill, I was also tuning in most mornings for the City briefing as well. And I also recall, vividly, being annoyed with the Governor and the Mayor prefacing their daily updates on the collapse of civilization as we had known it with virtual commercials about completing the census.

I can't fathom how anyone with a pulse didn't know---in March---about the need to complete and return the census form. I will admit that I hadn't done it before the world ended. But I did do it in March. It gave me something to do while waiting for next press conference.

Now I fully understand that some people, in some communities, may have been reluctant to participate. Even without the Never Ending Pandemic, as the Illinois Playbook noted this morning, referring to Rep. Chuy Garcia's concerns, "many residents born outside of the United States... may fear they’ll be questioned about their citizenship status, something President Donald Trump tried unsuccessfully add to the census." That explains some undercount, surely -- but 45% of the population of the City of Chicago?

The Census Bureau, for its part, said, in a press release Tuesday, that the count is "99.9% complete" with "33.1% counted by census takers and other field data collection operations, and 66.8% of housing units responding online, by phone or by mail." Which is a far cry from 72% compliance in the State of Illinois, or 69% nationally, or 55% in the City of Chicago. Somebody is doing the math wrong.

But, whoever's right, and whoever's wrong on the numbers, if you have not been counted yet, today is the deadline. You must go to the Census 2020 website today and make sure you are not part of the missing .1% -- or the missing 45%.

Wednesday, October 7, 2020

Ken Griffin has dropped over $46 million in opposition to the Fair Tax Amendment -- and I have a question

Rich Miller reported on CapitolFax.com that Ken Griffin recently contributed $26+ million to the Coalition to Stop the Proposed Tax Hike Amendment. The exact amount of Griffin's September 30 contribution was $26,750,000, according to the Illinois State Board of Elections website.

This was in addition, Miller reports, to a $20 million donation that Griffin previously made. So... over $46 million.

That's a lot of money -- and it raises, for me at least, a question.

Before asking my question, I should point out that I am not now and (unless I hit it big in Powerball or Megamillions) not likely to be a millionaire during this lifetime. I am also, as FWIW readers know, no politician. So there's a whole bunch of this high-stakes, big money, power politics stuff I don't understand. Most of it, in fact.

Still, I am a registered voter, and a citizen, and I hope I am as entitled as anyone to ask a question here.

And my question is... why?

Why would a rich person, or in Mr. Griffin's case, a very rich person, be opposed to a graduated Illinois income tax rate?

Don't laugh at me. Stay with me just a minute.

I'm no prophet, but here's what I think the future may hold: The tax rate for rich people will go up, as promised, if the Fair Tax Amendment passes. In which case the Illinois tax return, which is now extremely easy to complete, will become increasingly more complex with each passing year. Many lobbyists will find full employment getting particular exemptions from the new, higher rates that benefit these rich people, and other lobbyists will make small fortunes seeking different exemptions for those rich people. Accountants and tax lawyers will also prosper.

So the tax rates will go up... but will rich Illinoisans really pay more? History and precedent suggest otherwise.

By 1918, just five years after the adoption of the 16th Amendment, Wikipedia says (footnotes omitted), "the top rate of the income tax was increased to 77% (on income over $1,000,000, equivalent of $16,717,815 in 2018 dollars) to finance World War I. The average rate for the rich however, was 15%. The top marginal tax rate was reduced to 58% in 1922, to 25% in 1925 and finally to 24% in 1929. In 1932 the top marginal tax rate was increased to 63% during the Great Depression and steadily increased, reaching 94% in 1944" during World War II. These days, the top rate, again according to Wikipedia, is 37%. Which is a lot less than 94% -- but still a lot higher than the 4.95% flat tax rate in Illinois today.

Who actually pays those high Federal tax rates? Does anyone? Take an extreme example -- Donald Trump is almost always an extreme example -- according to the New York Times, Trump paid only $750 in federal income tax in the year he was elected and no tax at all in 11 of the 18 years of returns the Times reviewed (source). That's with a progressive, graduated federal income tax, too. Somehow, no matter what the rates are, many rich people finds ways to avoid paying their "fair" share. That's part of the secret of their success.

Seems to me, Mr. Griffin would have been better off spending his millions hiring Trump's accountants, or paying his own accountants to study the methods employed by Trump's accountants. But Mr. Griffin didn't ask me.

Tuesday, September 22, 2020

Today's media can only make us despise one another if we let them

Matt Taibbi covered politics for Rolling Stone for a number of years; the Internet advises that he now is self-publishing his work on Substack.

I saw a chapter of Hate Inc. online (it was in my price range... free) and I thought it so good, and so important, that I actually ordered the book. (OK, so I had a gift card.)

The subtitle of the book is "Why Today's Media Makes Us Despise One Another." And so many of us do -- perhaps without wondering why we do. Didn't we always?

And the answer, of course, is "no." Throughout the course of American history there has never been a shortage of instances of vitriolic, ad hominem attacks and partisan extremism -- but there have also been many instances of persons with strongly held, opposite views who somehow remained friends. There are just a lot fewer examples of such persons in these turbulent times. (In mourning her passing, the apparently genuine friendship between the late Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Antonin Scalia has been frequently cited... often with seeming astonishment.) A politician from one party could occasionally speak with an officeholder in the other party without either, or both, being denounced as quislings or traitors. Sometimes they could even meet in public.

Taibbi's book addresses how things have changed, and how the media has changed them... and us... all in the craven pursuit of clicks and bucks.

In particular, I submit that Mr. Taibbi is onto something with his 10 Rules of Hate. These are the rules; I encourage all to read the book to see his explanations:

  1. There are only two ideas.
  2. The two ideas are in permanent conflict.
  3. Hate people, not institutions.
  4. Everything is someone else's fault.
  5. Nothing is everyone's fault.
  6. Root, don't think.
  7. No switching teams.
  8. The other side is literally Hitler.
  9. In the fight against Hitler, everything is permitted.
  10. Feel superior.

It is difficult to imagine having a civil conversation with someone who has just called you Hitler, or who accuses you of supporting someone who behaves or acts like Hitler. And living in civil society with people who say we are Hitler or with people who we say are Hitler is pretty much unimaginable.

So this trend to extremism is flat-out dangerous. Dangerous to the future of the country, maybe even dangerous to any of us physically in the near term. Such as, for example, on November 4.

But it doesn't have to be this way. We can see how we are being manipulated. And we can refuse to play.

Naturally, I am inclined to believe that anyone reading me is not likely to live in a "silo" or "echo chamber" and has the wit to recognize how we are being played or manipulated by those who serve us "news," even if you had never before heard of the 10 Rules of Hate. You, Dear Reader, rightly disdain the open sewer that is so much of today's Facebook and Twitter -- but I'll bet you know plenty of people who are hopelessly mired in the quicksand of online hatred, fueled by manipulative media. These acquaintances of yours (perhaps persons whom you once called 'friend' in real life, or to whom you are regrettably related by blood or marriage) are probably denouncing paragons of virtue on your side, too, aren't they?

Oh... wait... maybe you might want to read this book first... before you give it to those poor, benighted idiots with whom you sometimes stoop to engage online....

Thursday, September 10, 2020

Cleaning up the Sidebar on Page One

Even though the two-week shutdown that was to begin immediately after the March Primary has still not ended, we are somehow in September already. (I don't know about you, but this seems longer, somehow, than just two weeks to me....)

Anyway, I'm pulling the links for all the campaign websites for Cook County judicial candidates in the March 2020 primary off the Sidebar on Page One and putting them here, more or less like putting stuff in the attic. Except, in this Internet attic, anyone can nose around.

Many of these links are long since dead, but not all of them. Even a year from now, if past experience proves any guide to the future, and if civilization has not collapsed utterly in the meantime, when potential 2022 candidates are scrounging for ideas or themes or other website ideas, some of these links may still be available for perusal.

2020 Cook County Circuit Court Candidates

2020 Appellate Court Candidates

2020 Supreme Court Candidates


*sound of attic door closing*